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Could partypoker reach the $20MUSD GTD next week?

partypoker is doing its best to raise the bar of online poker tournaments. The next week the so-called "biggest online poker tournament ever", with $20MUSD guaranteed by the room will be played; in this article, we study if the guaranteed prize could be reached.

Could partypoker reach the $20MUSD GTD next week?

10 tournament series (3 POWERFEST, 3 KO Series, 3 Monster Series and partypoker MILLIONS) had held partypoker in 2018. If we combine all, over $50MUSD have been awarded this year in MTT series.

  • partypoker POWERFEST    January 21st – February 4th
  • partypoker KO Series    February 25th – March 4th
  • partypoker Monster Series    April 29th – May 6th
  • partypoker POWERFEST    May 6th – May 20th
  • partypoker KO Series    June 2nd – June 10th
  • partypoker Monster Series    July 29th – August 6th
  • partypoker POWERFEST    September 2nd – September 23rd
  • partypoker KO Series    October 28th – November 4th
  • partypoker Monster Series    November 18th – November 25t
  • partypoker MILLIONS Online + HR Series    November 25th – December 5th

The past series had none or very small overlays, but the MILLIONS is different. It's a very ambitious project with millions of dollars at stake, hundreds of satellites feeding the main event are running every day. The situation today looks like this:

  • Day 1A (November 25): 1,574 players (finished)
  • Day 1B (November 29): 484 players (finished)
  • Day 1C (December 2): 43 registered players 
  • Day 1D (December 3): 5 registered players 
  • Day 1E: (December 4): 5 registered players 

In total, 2,341 players are registered to the main event, meaning a prize pool of $11,705,000. 1,659 additional players are needed to cover the guaranteed price ($8,259,000 missing). If we look only at the Day 1A results, it seems a very easy task, but the Day 1A was promoted by the room almost the entire year and not even 2,000 players played it.

partypoker MILLIONS satellites

But what about satellites? partypoker is also organizing a huge satellite campaign which also guarantees money. Check this out:

MILLIONS Online Mega Satellite: 25x$5,300 Seats GTD 

Buy-in: $500+$30
GTD Prize: $132,500 in tickets
Players: 247
Prize pool: $123,000
Overlay: $9,500 (7%)

MILLIONS Online Mega Satellite: 50x$5,300 Seats GTD 

Buy-in: $500+$30
GTD Prize: $265,000 in tickets
Players: 486
Prize pool: $243,000
Overlay: $22,000 (8%)

Other satellites are having similar overlays or just covering the GTD prizes by very little.

If we consider that partypoker had hundreds of satellites during the year, it's not crazy to say that even though the guaranteed prize is covered the room is having losses. Every day during this week, satellites with 50 GTD seats ($265,000) will be played and 8% overlays are common in those tournaments.

Conclusion

Reaching 1,600 players seems unlikely and considering the facts, the possible overlays would be:

Additional players Overlay
1,000 $6,825,000
1,500 $4,325,000

Even 100 players less mean a $500kUSD overlay!

Although the $20MUSD appear as covered the next week, it is certain that the poker room is giving away money in this series. partypoker is not as big as PokerStars, but even for Stars, a $20MUSD tournament with a $5,300 buy-in sounds big. We will have to wait until next week to see if the partypoker MILLIONS becomes the biggest tournament or the biggest overlay in poker history.

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Vargoso 29.11.18
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