Top Prediction Market Platforms in 2026: Where to Start

Today, prediction markets are discussed not only as a form of entertainment but also as a mechanism for collectively estimating the likelihood of future events and potentially earning from those insights. They are used to forecast outcomes in sports, politics, economics, the cryptocurrency sector, and other fields where results cannot be known in advance.

Prediction market apps and platforms reviewed

Prediction markets operate through specialized online platforms where users buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes. Each one defines which markets are offered, who is eligible to participate, and how trading is conducted.

Generally, prediction market apps can be grouped into two main categories:

• Regulated platforms that operate within established legal frameworks and are available only in certain jurisdictions, primarily the United States. They offer legally approved event contracts, a limited selection of markets, and are designed for both public users and institutional participants.
• Crypto platforms that use blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies for payments. They are usually accessible worldwide and provide a much broader range of markets, spanning politics, sports, technology, economics, and pop culture. Their legal status varies by jurisdiction and may fall into a regulatory "grey" area depending on the user’s location.

Below are the most notable apps currently operating in this segment.

Kalshi

• Launch: 2020
• Regulator: CFTC
• Currency: USD
• Geography: United States

Kalshi is the largest regulated prediction market platform in the United States that has operated under CFTC oversight since 2020. The platform offers event contracts priced between $0 and $1, with each price representing the market’s estimated probability of a given outcome. Kalshi features markets covering macroeconomic indicators, politics, statistical data, and select sport events. It operates within a federal regulatory framework; thus, Kalshi is widely regarded as the primary entry point to prediction markets for both public and institutional investors in the US.

Polymarket

• Launch: 2020
• Currency: USDC
• Blockchain: Polygon
• Geography: Global (with restrictions)

Polymarket is the most widely used cryptocurrency-based platform in the prediction markets space, operating since 2020 and serving a global audience. Trading is executed on-chain, with settlements conducted in USDC. Polymarket is known for its strong liquidity and extensive range of markets, covering elections, macroeconomic trends, technology, sports, and pop culture. Polymarket is frequently used as a barometer of public expectations, though access depends on the legal and regulatory status of prediction markets in each country.

Novig

• Launch: 2023
• Format: P2P
• Focus: Sports
• Currency: USD
• Geography: United States

Novig is a US-based peer-to-peer sports prediction website launched in 2023. Unlike traditional prediction markets, Novig does not rely on event contracts; instead, it facilitates direct trading between users. Odds are set by the market itself, and the platform generates revenue through commissions on winnings rather than built-in margins. Fully focused on sports, Novig positions itself as an alternative to traditional sportsbooks and betting exchanges within legally permitted U.S. jurisdictions.

What are prediction markets, and where did they come from?

Prediction markets are platforms where participants forecast future events, expressing their opinions through buying and selling outcomes. In simple terms, users trade on the likelihood of an event happening or not happening.

These markets are applied across a wide range of fields, including politics, sports, economics, and technology. The final price of the forecast represents the collective judgment of the market regarding the probability of a specific outcome.

Modern prediction markets originated in the United States. Initially, they were not designed for entertainment or gambling, but rather as analytical tools for economic forecasting and academic research. Their purpose was to use market dynamics to estimate the likelihood of future events such as election results, economic trends, or corporate decisions.

Early prediction markets were largely experimental and aimed at a limited audience. They covered only a narrow set of topics and were not intended for the general public.

How prediction markets work

Prediction markets function according to basic market principles. Participants buy and sell contracts linked to a specific outcome, with each contract priced between 0 and 1 (or $0 to $1). This price represents the market’s current estimate of the probability that the event will occur.

For example, if a contract is trading at 0.55, this means that market participants assess the chance of that outcome at approximately 55%. As news, data, or shifts in public sentiment become available, prices adjust accordingly, allowing the market to continuously refine its collective forecast.

Let's look at a sports event example:

Imagine a market built around the question: “Who will win the match?”

1. Team A is trading at 0.70
2. Team B is trading at 0.30

If you purchase a contract on Team A to win at a price of 0.70 and Team A wins the match, the contract settles at 1.00. The difference (0.30) represents the profit for each contract. If Team B wins instead, holders who bought Team B’s contract at the lower price of 0.30 receive the profit.

Importantly, contracts can be sold before the end of the event. If the market price moves in your favor, you can sell your position before the outcome is decided, allowing you to lock in a profit or limit a loss without waiting for the final result.

Prediction markets vs sports betting

At first glance, prediction markets and sports betting may appear similar, but they operate on fundamentally different principles. In traditional betting, a bookmaker determines the odds and betting limits, and the user places a wager and waits for the final result. In prediction markets, prices are established by the participants themselves, reflecting the market’s collective assessment of the probability of an outcome.

Unlike betting, in prediction markets, the user trades a forecast. Contracts can be bought, sold, or closed before the event concludes, enabling participants to secure a profit or limit a loss in advance. Each contract’s price directly represents a probability. For example, a price of 0.65 implies roughly a 65% chance that the outcome will occur.

Another key difference lies in the user’s role. In traditional betting, the player effectively competes against the bookmaker. In prediction markets, participants trade with one another and profit not simply by guessing the outcome, but by having a more accurate assessment of probabilities than the rest of the market. The primary constraint is not betting limits, but liquidity: the smaller the market, the harder it becomes to take a large position without affecting the price.

Types of prediction markets

The main advantage of prediction markets is their ability to forecast a broad range of real-world events. Major platforms offer contracts on many of the most widely discussed and relevant topics.

• Sports — predictions for events in the world's leading leagues and tournaments, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, UFC, and FIFA. Bets can cover the outcomes of individual matches, division winners, or season champions.
• Politics — markets covering elections, legislative initiatives, and political developments. These may include forecasts on election winners, the passage of laws, official visits, or even the content of public speeches.
• Pop Culture — forecasts for events in the entertainment industry: award winners, upcoming roles for famous actors, film and TV series rankings. One of the most diverse and creative market types.
• Trending News — markets linked to current news topics. These typically focus on events in the public spotlight, such as award ceremonies, major announcements, or year-end summaries.
• Economics — forecasts of economic indicators such as inflation, unemployment, fuel prices or other macroeconomic data.
• World Events — global markets focused on international politics, leadership visits, national economic developments, and other events occurring outside the United States.
• Tech — markets dedicated to technologies and products from major companies. Forecasts related to artificial intelligence, regulatory developments, and platform adoption are especially active.
• Weather — weather forecasts, including temperature, precipitation, or weather patterns in specific regions over a given period.

Why the trend is accelerating

Prediction markets evolved from an experimental concept into a full-scale market during 2024–2025. This shift is evident not only in rising user interest but also in increased trading volumes, a growing number of active markets, and the involvement of major players from the financial and betting industries.

In 2025, the combined trading volume across the largest prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket was estimated at $35–40 billion. At peak periods, Kalshi’s weekly turnover exceeded $1 billion, with more than 3,500 active markets available simultaneously, spanning politics, economics, sports, and current events.

Certain markets generated hundreds of millions of dollars in turnover around single events, particularly major elections and key macroeconomic decisions. In terms of liquidity, these markets are now comparable to the top lines offered by traditional bookmakers.

Interest from major companies

In 2025, major industry players began actively entering the prediction markets.

• The owner of the NYSE  invested about $2 billion in prediction market infrastructure.
• Fintech and cryptocurrency companies are acquiring technologies that enable trading in event-based contracts.
• DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics have launched their own prediction products.

This indicates the emergence of prediction markets as a separate product segment.

Media and public use

Major US media, including CNN and CNBC, have begun regularly incorporating prediction market data into their news coverage and analysis. Increasingly, these markets are being used as an alternative to polls, especially in political and economic reporting.

Are prediction markets legal?

Despite their growing popularity, prediction markets remain a complex and fragmented segment. The key risks and limitations extend beyond trading mechanics and are closely tied to the legal status of platforms across different jurisdictions.

The primary risk for the prediction markets is regulatory uncertainty. In some countries, they are classified as financial instruments or event contracts, while in others, they are treated as gambling and may be restricted or prohibited. As a result, platform availability can change unexpectedly, and certain markets may be limited, suspended, or blocked altogether.

Legal status by region:

• USA — In the United States, prediction markets fall under federal oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), setting them apart from sports betting, which is regulated at the state level. Ongoing legal disputes between federal authorities and individual states mean that some platforms remain unavailable in certain regions.
• Europe — there is no unified legal framework for prediction markets. Some countries allow them, while others prohibit access by classifying them as unlicensed gambling. As a result, the sector is developing unevenly: user and media interest continues to grow, but legal and regulatory risks remain significant.
• Asia — In many countries prediction markets are formally prohibited under strict online gambling regulations. However, crypto-based platforms often remain technically accessible, placing the market in a legal "grey" area with limited regulatory protection for users.
• Latin America — Situation is similar to Asia: clear regulatory frameworks are largely absent, and formal prohibitions coexist with easy access to crypto platforms and low barriers to entry.

Final take: what prediction markets point to in 2026

In recent years, prediction markets have moved beyond their origins as a niche experiment to become a visible global format. They are no longer just a way to “bet on the event outcome,” but a mechanism for capturing what people genuinely believe in,  by expressing it in monetary terms.

By 2024–2025, the growth of prediction markets was reflected not in discussion alone, but in measurable results: tens of billions of dollars in trading volume, thousands of active markets, and participation from major platforms, media outlets, and brands. Today, prediction markets are used across politics, economics, sports, technology, and even pop culture.

A revealing example is the speculation surrounding a supposed "secret ninth episode" of the "Stranger Things" series. The theory gained such traction that users on Polymarket placed nearly $10 million in contracts tied to the potential release of an additional episode. This market captured the scale of audience interest and confidence around a single cultural phenomenon, at a level comparable to major political or sporting events.

Cases like this illustrate how prediction markets are expanding beyond traditional topics and becoming a tool for measuring public expectations in a wide range of fields.

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